Monday, January 28, 2013

A632.2.3.RB_HallMike


Dr. Iyengar delivers another great video and set of ideas!  I first thought that this was the same video from MSLD500, however this one was completely different in that it provided 4 ways for individuals and businesses to cope with the large amount of choice that is available to us.  Her 4 ideas – cut, concretize, categorize, and condition – allow people to get better at making decisions by eliminating the excess.  I personally thought that cutting out the excess was the most useful to the common person and I found her research on conditioning also very interesting.

As a naval officer, cutting out choice is something that is ingrained in us from the first moments we take the deck and the conn as officer of the deck.  On a submarine, that watch is the end all – the next stop is the CO – when it comes to making decisions.  As a result, you can have a ton of information bombarding you at critical times when decisions must be made.  Through training, you learn to look/listen for key pieces of information to help you make your decision while allowing less important information to pass through your ears without interrupting your thought process.  This is not saying that the extra information is useless however.  All information is relevant at some point or another and only very little information is relevant all of the time.  Your job as OOD is to differentiate between the two quickly, thus cutting out the excess choices that result from excess information, in order to effectively/safely fight the ship.  I think this kind of mentality (cutting excess) could go a long way in helping the public writ large; however I do think they already do it, they just need to apply it more frequently.  Take for example buying a car.  There are literally hundreds of different makes and models for you to choose from.  I would say it is safe to assume that many people cut excess choices from their car buying experience by first removing the cars that have excessive price tags, then removing the types of cars that you don’t want (for example they don’t want a crossover), and then continue the narrowing process until they have only a couple of choices to choose from.  In this case it is easy to remove superfluous choices because you can’t afford many of them.  On the other hand, people have a hard time applying these same principles when they can afford all of the choices, as was the case with the Jam jars.  If they instead removed the extra choices available to them and concentrated on just a few, perhaps the sales percentage might go up.

I found the conditioning study to be very interesting.  Although I can’t say I’ve ever taken a test like the one from the study where the choices available either decreased or increased, what I can say is that I would probably find myself being exhausted as the number of choices available increased.  If instead I knock out the tough choices first, I would think I would be saying to myself that I am happy I only have to choose between a few options vice the 56 different colors as the study moved forward.  Conditioning your brain to deal with excess does make sense from an operational standpoint though – this is probably one of the reasons officers progress through different ranks while attaining higher responsibility vice just starting off with the whole problem.  By placing a young officer in a position to deal with small amounts of information/choices, you can teach them methods to deal with the amount of information coming at them so that when they are more senior, they can draw from the experience.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

A632.1.4.RB_HallMike

At the opening of the section discussing dynamic programming/optimal dynamic decision analysis, the book discusses how it turns out that we are just as likely to go with our gut instinct and get it right as we are to sit down and try to think it out.  In the Navy, we have a term for this – “nuking it”.  Essentially, nuclear propulsion operators tend to overthink the problem in front of them when often all they need to do is trust their gut.  There is a fantastic book out there called “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell that discusses how important your subconscious is and how your “gut” feeling is just your subconscious processing information faster than you can consciously and coming to a pretty good solution.  Great book, especially for a decision making class, but I digress.
Looking through the description of dynamic programming, I am a bit skeptical at its usefulness at helping solve business solutions.  My big complaint is you are making assumptions/guesses on the probabilities of some event occurring and then using these guesses to determining the best course of action.  If I was being forced to make a decision, I’m not sure I would trust any information that results from dynamic processing as it is based on guesses/predictions – something I am skeptical of.  How do you know how accurate the assessments of the probabilities are?  I know in my experience, incomplete data/guesses are not good when trying to convince your superiors that you know what you are doing – I’d rather just make a decision with the available data vice make a decision based on data that is based on likelihood of some event occurring.  Now what I do like about the system is that large amounts of data is collected prior to plugging in info into the equations.  I know that I definitely prefer to have as much data as possible prior to making a decision, even though that can sometimes overload your thought process.  One of the most challenging aspects of OOD is your ability to filter the large amounts of data coming into you and focusing on the important aspects based on the situation (i.e. all data is relevant at one point or another just very little data is relevant all of the time).  As such, it is very important that you are able to key in on the key pieces of data in order to make your decision.  It is somewhat like having a box of crayons and being forced to decide on 1 color – you’d probably want to have the big box of 164 colors first, then narrow it down to the finalists, and then choose from that small collection.  When making decisions, I want all 164 colors worth of raw data so that I can pick out the key colors for me to make my decision.
Going back to the discussion points, the equation only works if your assessments of the probabilities are accurate.  This will force you to think out toward the future and make you create future plans (especially contingency plans).  When applying it to optimal dynamic decision analysis, it would definitely assist you in determining the likelihood of all of the possible outcomes, as well as the multitude of second and third order effects the decision might have.  With respect to its application, per the book optimal dynamic decision analysis assumes that the user is able to identify all possible outcomes.  Given that it is impossible to determine all of the possible outcomes from a decision, I think the second half of optimal dynamic decision analysis is more important – being able to learn from history.  By being a good student of the past, you are better able to determine potential outcomes based on previous situations.  Additionally, your knowledge of the past my help you better assess the probability that the outcomes might occur, thus helping you perform dynamic programming.